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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 10 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(13:31) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to GB 37 for 3 yards (29-L.Joyner).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model