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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 62 yards to NYJ 20, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model