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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 5

New York Jets 24 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 6-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model