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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to GB 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 21 for 7 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP