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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to NYJ 15, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model