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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 88

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 7-B.Mann punts 61 yards to GB 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 27 for no gain (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model