Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 28

(6:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model