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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SF
47.5%
ATL
52.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Javon Kinlaw DT Out Knee
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Knee
Jimmie Ward S Out Hand
Trent Williams T Out Ankle
Aaron Banks G Questionable Knee
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Groin
Tyler Kroft TE Questionable Knee

ATL

Mykal Walker LB Out Groin
Adetokunbo Ogundeji LB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Pitts TE Questionable Hamstring
Elijah Wilkinson G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 14
–
ATL 28

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:51 TD ATL (8:51) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 01:36 TD ATL (1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle), recovered by ATL-32-J.Hawkins at SF -4. TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ATL 13
  • Q2 11:39 TD SF (11:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ATL 14
  • Q2 07:13 TD SF (7:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [47-A.Ebiketie]. SF 13 – ATL 14
  • Q2 01:02 TD ATL (1:02) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – ATL 20
  • Q3 08:44 TD ATL (8:44) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – ATL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 53 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 35-A.Williams to ATL 32 for 19 yards (26-S.Womack).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 11, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 33, Center-48-L.McCullough. 3-R.McCloud to ATL 32 for 35 yards (44-T.Andersen).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:06) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 35-A.Williams to ATL 35 for 29 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to SF 20, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 58%

    (10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 1, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-12-K.Hodge.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 92%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 19-D.Samuel.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SF 19, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.