Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(3:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 11, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.31 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model