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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to WAS 3, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP