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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

GB
46.9%
WAS
53.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.141 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.112 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Taylor Heinicke in place of Carson Wentz)
  • WAS offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • WAS on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

GB

Randall Cobb WR Out Ankle
Jake Hanson C Out Biceps
Christian Watson WR Out Hamstring
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Hamstring
Devonte Wyatt DT Questionable Illness
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee

WAS

Dyami Brown WR Out Groin
William Jackson CB Out Back
Logan Thomas TE Out Calf
Carson Wentz QB Out right Finger
Jonathan Williams RB Out Knee
Jahan Dotson WR Questionable Hamstring
John Bates TE Questionable Hamstring
Samuel Cosmi T Questionable Finger

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 21
–
WAS 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:45 TD GB (6:45) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 02:07 FG WAS (2:07) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. GB 7 – WAS 3
  • Q2 13:42 TD GB (13:42) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [52-R.Gary] at GB 37. 59-D.Campbell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – WAS 3
  • Q2 07:26 TD WAS (7:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 24-A.Gibson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – WAS 9
  • Q3 11:55 TD WAS (11:55) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – WAS 16
  • Q3 00:11 FG WAS (:11) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. GB 14 – WAS 20
  • Q4 06:42 FG WAS (6:42) 6-J.Slye 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. GB 14 – WAS 23
  • Q4 03:33 TD GB (3:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 33-A.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to WAS 3, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:11) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 42, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 8-Am.Rodgers to WAS 42 for 16 yards (22-D.Forrest).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:05) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to GB 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 8-Am.Rodgers MUFFS catch, touched at GB 18, RECOVERED by WAS-35-P.Butler at GB 17.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (2:07) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to WAS 31, Center-56-J.Coco. 15-D.Milne to WAS 36 for 5 yards (25-K.Nixon).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (2:52) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to WAS 31, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-58-I.McDuffie.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:56) 5-T.Way punts 68 yards to GB 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at GB 15. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Way punts 68 yards to GB 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 22%

    (9:03) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to WAS 15, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (:11) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 62%

    (11:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs (29-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (6:42) 6-J.Slye 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (:29) 5-T.Way punts 24 yards to GB 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.