4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 29

Washington Commanders 10 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model