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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to WAS 31, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-58-I.McDuffie.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model