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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to WAS 15, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP