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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 20 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-J.Slye 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP