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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 97

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 42, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 8-Am.Rodgers to WAS 42 for 16 yards (22-D.Forrest).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model