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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 42

Washington Commanders 23 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(:29) 5-T.Way punts 24 yards to GB 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP