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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP