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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to WAS 31, Center-56-J.Coco. 15-D.Milne to WAS 36 for 5 yards (25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model