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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 25-D.King. PENALTY on LV-47-T.Sieg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP