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Houston Texans

1-4-1 HC Lovie Smith
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Las Vegas Raiders

2-4 HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 16:05 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

HOU
41.0%
LV
59.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) -0.002 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.100 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23 16–30
–
LV 26 19–33
Projected margin: LV by 3 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Jonathan Greenard DE Out Calf
Austin Deculus T Questionable Ankle
Brevin Jordan TE Questionable Ankle
Chris Moore WR Questionable Hip

LV

Darren Waller TE Out Hamstring
Jayon Brown LB Questionable Hamstring
Mack Hollins WR Questionable Heel
Hunter Renfrow WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
LV 38

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 FG LV (10:00) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. HOU 0 – LV 3
  • Q2 11:22 TD HOU (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – LV 3
  • Q2 05:02 FG HOU (5:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 10 – LV 3
  • Q2 00:31 TD LV (:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – LV 9
  • Q3 11:04 FG HOU (11:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 13 – LV 10
  • Q3 05:54 TD LV (5:54) 28-J.Jacobs left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – LV 16
  • Q3 03:20 TD HOU (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – LV 17
  • Q4 13:37 TD LV (13:37) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LV 23
  • Q4 07:12 TD LV (7:12) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LV 30
  • Q4 03:39 TD LV (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 9-B.Jordan INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon at LV 27. 30-D.Harmon for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LV 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (10:00) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (4:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%

    (7:35) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 25-D.King. PENALTY on LV-47-T.Sieg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 67%

    (5:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 75%

    (:41) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs to HOU 29 for 4 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (11:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to LV 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-D.Turner MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 19.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 88-J.Akins to HOU 48 for 10 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin; 25-T.Moehrig).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale [99-C.Ferrell].

    See the full breakdown →