Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- LV defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) -0.002 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.100 EPA/dropback
- HOU defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
HOU
LV
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:00 FG LV (10:00) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. HOU 0 – LV 3
- Q2 11:22 TD HOU (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – LV 3
- Q2 05:02 FG HOU (5:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 10 – LV 3
- Q2 00:31 TD LV (:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – LV 9
- Q3 11:04 FG HOU (11:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 13 – LV 10
- Q3 05:54 TD LV (5:54) 28-J.Jacobs left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – LV 16
- Q3 03:20 TD HOU (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – LV 17
- Q4 13:37 TD LV (13:37) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LV 23
- Q4 07:12 TD LV (7:12) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LV 30
- Q4 03:39 TD LV (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 9-B.Jordan INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon at LV 27. 30-D.Harmon for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LV 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%
(10:00) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%
(4:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%
(7:35) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 25-D.King. PENALTY on LV-47-T.Sieg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 10.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 37Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 67%
(5:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 75%
(:41) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs to HOU 29 for 4 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(11:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(11:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to LV 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-D.Turner MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 19.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 62Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 37%
(5:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 88-J.Akins to HOU 48 for 10 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin; 25-T.Moehrig).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 14 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(1:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale [99-C.Ferrell].