Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 71

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

(11:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to LV 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-D.Turner MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model