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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model