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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 62

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 31

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 88-J.Akins to HOU 48 for 10 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin; 25-T.Moehrig).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP