Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 28 – New Orleans Saints 14

(14:12) 14-A.Lee punts 31 yards to NO 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-47-E.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model