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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Thursday 2022-10-20 · 20:15 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NO
51.6%
ARI
48.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.103 vs Andy Dalton (NO) -0.061 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
ARI 22
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NO

Jarvis Landry WR Out Ankle
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Andrus Peat G Out Chest
Michael Thomas WR Out Foot
Adam Trautman TE Out Ankle
Paulson Adebo CB Questionable Knee
Keith Kirkwood WR Questionable Ankle
Calvin Throckmorton T Questionable Hip
Payton Turner DE Questionable Chest

ARI

Marquise Brown WR Out Foot
Dennis Gardeck LB Out Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Out Knee
Justin Pugh G Out Knee
Darrel Williams RB Out Knee
James Conner RB Questionable Ribs
Matt Prater K Questionable right Hip
Trayvon Mullen CB Questionable Hamstring
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 34
–
ARI 42

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:02 TD NO (13:02) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 89-R.Shaheed for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 10:58 FG ARI (10:58) 15-R.Blankenship 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. NO 7 – ARI 3
  • Q2 13:19 FG ARI (13:19) 15-R.Blankenship 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. NO 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 10:33 TD NO (10:33) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 7-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – ARI 6
  • Q2 02:32 TD ARI (2:32) (Shotgun) 30-K.Ingram up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – ARI 12
  • Q2 02:00 TD ARI (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Wilson at NO 38. 20-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – ARI 20
  • Q2 00:57 TD ARI (:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Simmons at ARI 44. 9-I.Simmons for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – ARI 26
  • Q3 09:47 FG NO (9:47) 3-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 17 – ARI 28
  • Q3 00:32 TD ARI (:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 83-G.Dortch for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – ARI 34
  • Q4 11:20 TD NO (11:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – ARI 35
  • Q4 06:26 TD ARI (6:26) (Shotgun) 26-E.Benjamin up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – ARI 41
  • Q4 03:12 TD NO (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – ARI 42
  • Q4 00:47 FG NO (:47) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 34 – ARI 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (10:58) 15-R.Blankenship 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (13:19) 15-R.Blankenship 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 79-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end pushed ob at NO 2 for 2 yards (96-C.Granderson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:12) 14-A.Lee punts 31 yards to NO 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-47-E.Turner.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (9:47) 3-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (7:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to ARI 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to ARI 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:06) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to NO 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-R.Shaheed to ARI 46 for 14 yards (89-S.Anderson; 47-E.Turner).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

    (4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 1-M.Callaway to ARI 3 for 12 yards (20-M.Wilson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 56%

    (2:49) 14-A.Lee punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (:47) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.