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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 14 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 3-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model