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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 17 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 4-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to ARI 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model