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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 90

Arizona Cardinals 35 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to NO 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-R.Shaheed to ARI 46 for 14 yards (89-S.Anderson; 47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model