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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 32

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 15-R.Blankenship 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.48 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model