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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 24 – Arizona Cardinals 42

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 1-M.Callaway to ARI 3 for 12 yards (20-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model