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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 31 – Arizona Cardinals 42

What Actually Happened

(:47) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model