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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 8 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 10-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP