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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYG
33.0%
JAX
67.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.020 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.093 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYG

Cordale Flott CB Out Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Out Knee
Azeez Ojulari LB Out Calf
Kadarius Toney WR Out Hamstring
Oshane Ximines LB Out Quadricep
Jon Feliciano C Questionable Groin
Jason Pinnock S Questionable Ankle

JAX

Jamal Agnew WR Out Knee
Shaquill Griffin CB Out Back
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Quadricep
Davon Hamilton DT Questionable Foot
Marvin Jones WR Questionable Hamstring
Foyesade Oluokun LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 23
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:29 TD NYG (10:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 07:02 TD JAX (7:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 13:26 FG JAX (13:26) 10-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYG 7 – JAX 11
  • Q2 07:31 FG NYG (7:31) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – JAX 11
  • Q2 00:32 FG NYG (:32) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – JAX 11
  • Q3 11:47 TD JAX (11:47) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – JAX 17
  • Q4 05:35 TD NYG (5:35) 8-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – JAX 17
  • Q4 01:07 FG NYG (1:07) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 23 – JAX 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to JAX 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-49-T.Fox.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 83%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to NYG 25 for 2 yards (37-F.Moreau).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (13:26) 10-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (7:31) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (:32) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 28%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Johnson (31-D.Williams).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:01) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to NYG 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-R.James.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 38%

    (1:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (11:30) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to NYG 20 for no gain (54-J.Smith; 20-J.Love).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 80-R.James to NYG 23 for 2 yards (6-C.Claybrooks; 42-A.Wingard).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (1:07) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones to NYG 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Love). PENALTY on NYG-99-L.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 32.