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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 15

New York Giants 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(:32) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model