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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 3

New York Giants 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 84-M.Johnson (31-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 3, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model