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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 90

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to NYG 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.45 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 90, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP