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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 43

Denver Broncos 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 4-B.Rypien up the middle to NYJ 42 for 1 yard (97-N.Shepherd).

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model