NYJ @ DEN — 4th & Data

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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh

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Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett

Sunday 2022-10-23 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

NYJ

47.0%

DEN

53.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
QB edge to NYJ: Brett Rypien (DEN) -0.321 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.144 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Brett Rypien in place of Russell Wilson)
DEN offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
DEN defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17

–

DEN 18

Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 35

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYJ

Jermaine Johnson DE Out Ankle

Elijah Moore WR Out Not injury related - personal matter

Ashtyn Davis S Questionable Hamstring

DEN

Essang Bassey CB Out Hamstring

Caden Sterns S Doubtful Hip

DeShawn Williams DT Questionable Back

Josey Jewell LB Questionable Knee

D.J. Jones DT Questionable Ankle

Quinn Meinerz G Questionable Foot

Russell Wilson QB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 16

–

DEN 9

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:44 TD NYJ (7:44) 20-Br.Hall left end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – DEN 0
Q1 01:37 TD DEN (1:37) 28-L.Murray left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – DEN 6
Q2 03:41 FG DEN (3:41) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman. NYJ 7 – DEN 9
Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 10 – DEN 9
Q4 12:53 FG NYJ (12:53) 6-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 13 – DEN 9
Q4 04:39 FG NYJ (4:39) 6-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 16 – DEN 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(14:44) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 52%

(11:43) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:14) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-M.Washington to DEN 39 for 2 yards (34-J.Hardee).
Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(8:52) 17-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to NYJ 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-16-T.Cleveland.
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 43

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 39%

(13:04) 4-B.Rypien up the middle to NYJ 42 for 1 yard (97-N.Shepherd).
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 38

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 53%

(11:25) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

(9:51) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DEN 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.
Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 81%

(3:41) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

(:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 18%

(12:20) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 51%

(10:22) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(8:15) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to NYJ 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-16-T.Cleveland.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:38) 7-B.Mann punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP

p(convert) 70%

(4:38) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to NYJ 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 61%

(2:16) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to DEN 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 16

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 93%

(12:53) 6-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP

p(convert) 70%

(10:54) 17-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to NYJ 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 22 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 87%

(4:39) 6-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 25 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 83%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton (1-A.Gardner).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(1:39) 7-B.Mann punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 24%

(:37) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep right to 1-K.Hamler.