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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 26

Denver Broncos 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model