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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 71

Denver Broncos 9 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to NYJ 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-16-T.Cleveland.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model