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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 57

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP