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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 9 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 17-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to NYJ 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP