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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 25

Denver Broncos 9 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton (1-A.Gardner).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP