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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to PIT 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 14 for 2 yards (20-J.Bethel; 22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model