PIT @ MIA — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Tomlin

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HC Mike McDaniel

Sunday 2022-10-23 · 20:20 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PIT

30.5%

MIA

69.5%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.151 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.040 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Tua Tagovailoa in place of Teddy Bridgewater)
MIA defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20

–

MIA 26

Projected margin: MIA by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PIT

Steven Sims WR Out Hamstring

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Doubtful Hamstring

James Pierre CB Questionable Hip

MIA

Keion Crossen CB Doubtful Knee

Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe

Xavien Howard CB Questionable Groin

Kader Kohou CB Questionable Abdomen

Greg Little T Questionable Achilles

Emmanuel Ogbah DE Questionable Back

Durham Smythe TE Questionable Hamstring

Skylar Thompson QB Questionable right Thumb

Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Shoulder

Christian Wilkins DT Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 10

–

MIA 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:51 TD MIA (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – MIA 6
Q1 05:34 FG MIA (5:34) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. PIT 0 – MIA 10
Q1 02:32 FG MIA (2:32) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. PIT 0 – MIA 13
Q2 11:49 FG PIT (11:49) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – MIA 13
Q2 01:55 TD PIT (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – MIA 13
Q2 00:07 FG MIA (:07) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. PIT 10 – MIA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 23 yards to MIA 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 45.
Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

(5:34) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

(2:32) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 50

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%

(14:39) (No Huddle) 30-J.Warren right guard to MIA 46 for 4 yards (52-E.Roberts).
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 83%

(11:49) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(9:30) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to PIT 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 14 for 2 yards (20-J.Bethel; 22-E.Campbell).
Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

(:07) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(12:58) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 14

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

(8:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds left guard to PIT 14 for no gain (51-M.Jack).
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 64

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP

p(convert) 70%

(6:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(5:00) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to PIT 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 39 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q3 PIT 4th & 15 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(2:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP

p(convert) 72%

(:44) 4-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP

p(convert) 70%

(14:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.
Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(12:03) 4-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski pushed ob at PIT 23 for 10 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(10:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 15 for 1 yard (44-D.Watt).
Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP

p(convert) 54%

(8:03) 4-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 42 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 48%

(2:37) 4-T.Morstead punts 29 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 68 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).