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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model