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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds left guard to PIT 14 for no gain (51-M.Jack).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model