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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP