Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(5:00) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to PIT 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 39 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.27 EP
57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model